Monte Carlo Simulation for Scrum Team Planning and Forecasting

This tool is intended to help scrum teams plan and forecast more effectively using Monte Carlo simulation. It works for either throughput or velocity data. The simulation uses a normal distribution model based on the data you enter. The model will work more effectively with a larger number of data points.

The tool will provide you with two key pieces of information:

The likelihood of delivering the items you are planning for the sprint
Based on the size of your product backlog, when you are likely to deliver it, depending on the confidence level you choose

This model provides forecasts based on statistical models to help teams have more informed planning conversations. It does not provide any guarantee of delivery.

Enter historic velocities (comma-separated) or throughputs: How many units of work are remaining in your product backlog? How many units of work are you planning for your next sprint? Enter number of simulations (e.g., 100000): Select percentage confidence required: 85%

Set minimum value to 0? (i.e., prevent negative velocity):

This tool was created by Paul Grew. Visit paulgrew.com for more information.

Disclaimer: This tool is designed to assist with forecasting sprint velocity and release timelines based on user-provided inputs and simulations. The results generated are purely for informational and estimation purposes, and should not be regarded as guarantees or precise predictions. While the tool uses statistical methods such as Monte Carlo simulations to provide projections, the accuracy of these projections is dependent on the quality and relevance of the data provided by the user. Variability in real-world factors such as team performance, changing scope, and unforeseen delays may affect actual outcomes. Therefore, users should exercise caution and not rely solely on the results from this tool for critical decision-making. The creators of this tool disclaim any liability for losses or damages, direct or indirect, arising from the use of this tool. Users are encouraged to consult with Scrum professionals or conduct further analysis when making important project or sprint planning decisions.