Release horizon
— at your selected confidence
Evidence over estimates
Monte Carlo Forecaster
About this tool
Forecast with confidence, not certainty.
Use historic throughput or velocity to explore sprint and release outcomes. More data points usually produce a more useful model.
Results are statistical estimates, not delivery guarantees. Changing scope, team conditions and other real-world factors can affect outcomes.
02
Normal distribution model
Forecast output
What the data is telling you
Below 50% · 50–85% · Above 85%
Release distribution
Simulated sprint countChance of completing the backlog by the end of each day. Sprints use calendar days; the first sprint ends one sprint length after the start, counting the start date. Dates use the latest simulation.
Below 50% · 50–85% · Above 85%